Weekend reading: Obama's coming victory

We're now into single digits--nine days out from election day. McCain was on Meet the Press this morning to say he was "happy" about where his campaign was and insisting that he will win. But the polls are saying something very different. Here's an indication of how bad things are going for Palin/McCain: Georgia has gone to toss-up status according to pollster.com. McCain's lead is just under three points in...Georgia!

Over at Newsweek Markos Moulitsas has an article for the November 3 issue that starts off "On Nov. 4, Barack Obama will be elected as the next president of the United States." No ambiguity there at all. More and more analysts are willing to bet it all that Obama will win on November 4, and win big. As he says, "the big question is, will Democrats nationwide simply 'win' the night—or will they deliver an electoral drubbing so thorough that it signals the utter rejection of conservative ideology and kills the notion that America is a "center-right" country?"

What has happened since 2000 and 2004? The answer is probably that Republicans actually never had a very strong grip on the country. George W. Bush didn't even win the popular vote in 2000. The Supreme Court had to stop the Florida recount and declare him the winner. Florida pushed Bush over the goal line by one electoral vote. In 2004 Bush defeated Kerry by 35, which was, except for 2000, still the closest election since 1968. Looking back, it seems clear that Karl Rove and company knew they were walking a thin line, which is why every issue had to be politicized and leveraged for maximum impact.

But now all of that appears to be ending. If current polls are accurate, Obama could win 381 electoral votes. That's without Georgia's 15. That includes states like Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and New Mexico. All states which voted for Bush in 2004. Given the toss-up status of the country, politically, in 2000 and 2004, and add in the complete failure of Republicans over the last eight years, and you have the makings of a landslide. I can't remember the last time a party made such large gains in both the executive election, and in the congressional races. Along with Obama coming to the White House, the Democrats stand to win up to nine more seats in the Senate, and add to their majority in the House.

I always thought McCain was the best candidate for the Republican ticket this fall. McCain once showed concern for immigrants, and disgust for corporate greed. He was known as a pragmatic reformer with a real track-record to run on, including everything from immigration reform to challenging Department of Defense officials on torture. Not to mention McCain's own, powerful, personal story. As David Brooks writes in the New York Times, "His campaign seemed the perfect vehicle to explain how this old approach applied to a new century with new problems — a century with widening inequality, declining human capital, a fraying social contract, rising entitlement debt, corporate authoritarian regimes abroad and soft corporatist collusion at home."

Immediately after Obama won the Democratic nomination last summer, the McCain camp started positioning themselves as reformers. Reformers of their own party, and of the country. They seemed to understand two important facts: that the country was hungry for change, and disgusted with anything associated with George W. Bush. But as Brooks points out, McCain "never articulated a governing philosophy." All of his tactics were about "how to present McCain, not about how to describe the state of country or the needs of the voter. It was all biography, which was necessary, but it did not clearly point to a new direction for the party or the country."

Someone--I wish I could remember who--boldly declared McCain's campaign over the minute he selected Sarah Palin to be his VP. I was not as sure, but now it appears that person was correct. Palin was a wild card with a lot of upside. But as she has made her case in front of Americans, many view her as simply unqualified for the job. Her rhetoric has turned increasingly hostile, and Brooks gets it right when he says she "represents the old resentments and the narrow appeal of conventional Republicanism." She has done nothing but appeal to the conservative base, which is not enough to win in 2008.

McCain's choice of Palin has been highly scrutinized. Many openly asking "why?" a question Jane Mayer attempts to answer in her New Yorker article "The Insiders: how John McCain came to pick Sarah Palin." Palin seems to have done a masterful job of wooing beltway insiders to transport herself from Alaska to Washington. Her most influential early supporter turned out to be William Kristol, neoconservative writer for the Weekly Standard. Kristol met Palin when his Alaskan cruise ship stopped in Juneau. After one meeting he was completely struck and began to push her for VP consideration.

Mayer writes how McCain came up to be linked to Palin. Originally he wanted Joe Lieberman but eventually backed down to advisers who warned that Lieberman was too liberal on social issues. Karl Rove wanted former rival Mitt Romney on the ticket, but hard feelings remained from the primaries. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was too conventional (McCain is now losing Minnesota by 12 points). McCain wanted his "maverick" image to be conveyed in his VP as well. Finally McCain's aides converged on Palin. "By the time he announced her as his choice," Mayer writes, "he had spent less than three hours in her company."

To read of how Palin came to be McCain's VP is almost laughable. The want ad would have read something like this:

Wanted: reformer and social conservative for the second highest position in the land. Female desired. Short resume a bonus.

The list of potential running mates was always pretty thin for the Republicans. Compared to the Democrats, their roster of stars is a joke. They knew a woman would be a plus, given all the angry Hillary supporters searching for a home. Palin fell right into their laps. But in 2008, capability trumps even gender.

One person close to McCain called the Palin pick "the fucking most ridiculous thing I've ever heard" and national reaction, after Palin finally gave a few interviews, wasn't far off. SNL quickly turned her into a national punch line, and her appearance on the show last weekend did nothing to buck that trend. A true maverick, Palin, with her $150,000 wardrobe, tanning bed in the executive mansion, and a makeup artist earning more on her payroll than her foreign policy adviser, seems to be all about brand Palin. She has certainly "energized the base" as McCain likes to say, but she has done nothing outside of that 30% of America. Many are openly saying McCain should have dumped her, and she is now an undeniable albatross on the campaign.

I find a few things particularly delightful about Palin's rise in correlation to McCain, and the Republican's, fall. One is William Kristol's participation in the matter. There's certainly no fool like an old fool, and that would be Kristol. Mayer's article, while certainly liberal, makes it clear that many Republican good ol' boys were takin in by Palin, the former beauty queen. Many described her--in print--as "a honey," or "a looker," etc. They stood no chance against a confident woman in a business suit. It must have been like meeting a modern-day Republican pin-up girl.

I noted before that America is fed up with Bush. Up to just recently, Kristol had been unceasing in his support of the president and the Iraq war. He was far behind the curve. That he applied his considerable judgment to the selection of the Republican VP pick, one which came to represent almost everything that is wrong about the Republican platform, is almost too good to be believed.

And poor McCain, a man who let his mavericky image trump what was once pragmatism. The right VP pick was Romney. Even before it went to hell, the economy was the number one issue on voters minds, especially to essential swing state blue collar voters. By picking the social conservative, McCain ceeded the center. He ceeded pragmatism for politics. And he lost the election.

Presidential Debate 3: Up with lefties!

I have dutifully sat through all three presidential debates, the final one tonight, and what ever else may happen, this much is clear: it has been a victory for southpaws everywhere. By observing closely--specifically as Obama and McCain scrawled on their legal pads--I ascertained that no matter who wins, the next leader of the free world will be a lefty (just another thing both agree on).

This has happened before. I dug through Google and discovered that in 1992 all three candidates--Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and Ross Perot--were left handed. In-fact, lefties have dominated recent White House races. Six of the last 12 presidents have been written with the wrong hand: Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and now either Obama or McCain. Why do lefties--approximately 10% of the population--continually rise to the top in presidential elections? And was this key in Hillary Clinton's defeat? (she's a righty)

It's a well-known fact that left-handers are not only cooler, but better equiped for the job as president. To compare Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by their lateral brain functions is almost a succinct rundown of their prevailing attributes.

Left-brained (Hillary): analytical, verbal, logical, exact, present and past, literal. Right-brained (Obama): intuitive, holistic, synthesizing, and forward looking.

No need to even mention George W. Bush, who is presumably a righty since he was not on the list above, but probably isn't sure which hand to write with, or when to write, or what part of his brain to use.

So I, for one, welcome our new left-handed overloards. I'd like to remind them, as a leftie myself, I can be very helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves.

In-case you're wondering, Obama off-set any left-brained deficiencies by selecting righty Joe Biden as his running mate. McCain picked Sarah Palin, who, even if she is right-handed, had a tanning bed installed in her executive mansion in Juneau, Alaska.

So, I give a Debate III (this time it's personal) victory to Obama, who wrote with a stylish thin pen. McCain scrawled over page after page with a big fat sharpie. Creepy.

The stump week that was: ugly Americans

Watching angry Republicans stand up at rally after rally, confront McCain, shout and boo him down, and toss out bigoted remarks about Obama, it's hard not to sense that the wheels are slowly coming off his campaign. Many Republicans, sensing the election slipping away, have grown increasingly restless and unhappy about the way McCain has waged his campaign, and they are now vocalizing it on at stump speeches around the country.

Plain/McCain unveiled a new strategy on October 6, when a top adviser was quoted as saying "if we talk about the economy we'll loose." Since then the camp has subtly attempted to paint Obama as a shadowy, untrustworthy, anti-American (moves straight out of Hillary's playbook). This began with Palin's comments on October 4 that Obama "... is someone who sees America, it seems, as being so imperfect, imperfect enough, that he's palling around with terrorists who would target their own country." She also said, "This is not a man who sees America as you see America and as I see America." Recently the McCain camp has been trying to link Obama with William Ayers.

The tension has built up over the course of the week, as supporters at the McCain and Palin rallies tarted randomly screaming "terrorist!" and "off with his head!" and "treason!" and even "kill him!" at the mention of Barack Obama's name.

"I don't trust Obama. I have read about him. He's an Arab." said a woman at a McCain rally in Lakeville, MN today.

McCain's response was honorable. "No, ma'am. He's a decent, family man, a citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with (him) on fundamental issues and that's what this campaign is all about."

He was met with boos when he said, "I have to tell you, he is a decent person and a person that you do not have to be scared of as president of the United States."

On Thursday in Wisconsin, when a man stood up to "ask" a "question" and, veins popping in his neck, delivered himself of the following: "I'm mad. I'm really mad. And what's gonna surprise ya is not the economy. It's the socialists takin' over our country. [Lengthy applause] Sit down. I'm not done. Let me finish, please [laughter] ... when you have Obama, [Nancy] Pelosi and the rest of the hooligans up there gonna run this country, we gotta have our head examined. It's time that you two are representing us, and we are mad! So go get 'em!" [Extended chanting: "USA! USA! USA!"]

Who, exactly, is the socialist? Obama, who has proposed to cut taxes for the middle class? Or McCain? Which one actively participated while the size of the government and defect ballooned under a Republican congress and a president who took six years to veto a spending bill? And what could be more socialistic than a plan to buy up bad home mortgages and renegotiate them? Whose idea was that? You might never know, but it wasn't Obama. It was McCain That One.

Meanwhile, yesterday in Alaska, a legislative investigator found that Palin violated state ethics laws and abused her power by trying to have her former brother-in-law fired as a state trooper.

Smear ads and attacks and frustration seem to be all that Palin/McCain have left after a week in-which Obama's lead has reached double digits. This also after the "maverick" Senator suspended his campaign to skip the last debate and look into the economic crisis, only to return to debate and rubber stamp a $700 billion rescue plan. This also after Palin's embarrassing interview with Katie Couric, calling into question her preparedness for even the governorship of Alaska, not to mention McCain's sanity for choosing her to be the second in line to running the country.

Perhaps those angry should look not to Obama, but the ones they have chosen to run the country. From Bush 2000 and 2004, to McCain in 2008, it has been an exercrise in perpetual ineptness. The end of this comedy of errors is near. The curtain is falling to shouts and boos for one more pathetic act before and era comes to an end.

Palin power

Palinsanity went plaid live from New York on SNL, with Tina Fey playing the VP candidate from Alaska alongside Amy Poehler as Sen. Hillary Clinton. The two both spoofed and accurately encapsulated their caricatures perfectly, capturing Palin's sudden rise to fame in the wake of Clinton's defeat to Barack Obama, showing the correlation of the two events flawlessly.

A few digs were made about Palin being less experienced than Clinton. As Poehler's Clinton bragged about her foreign policy experience, Fey's Alaskan governor exclaimed: "I can see Russia from my house!"

When Poehler said she disagreed with the Bush Doctrine, Fey's Palin acknowledged, "I don't know what that means" — a reference to Palin's apparent confusion on the subject in her first major interview earlier this week on ABC.

Poehler wrapped up the sketch: "In conclusion, I invite the media to grow a pair. And if you can't, I will lend you mine."

Yeah, it's all there, from Clinton's macho-feminism, to Palin's utter lack of experience, and how neither attribute benefited or harmed either candidate respectively.

So, what do I think of Palin? Politically, she was a shrewd pick by McCain. A few pundits signaled her selection as the end of his campaign--but it has had exactly the opposite effect. It softened McCain's crotchety old man image, while drawing the attention of female voters. Palin, the mother of five, is the everymom, someone millions of mothers can relate to. Attacks on her are attacks on an entire demographic of women. But she is also charismatic and endearing. In many ways she is the anti-Hillary, who represented what Maureen Dowd once called "shoulder pad feminism."

Back in May, Dowd wrote about what women in their 30s, 40s and 50s didn't like about Hillary:

They feel that women have moved past that men-are-pigs, woe-is-me, sisters-must-stick-together, pantsuits-are-powerful era that Hillary’s campaign has lately revived with a vengeance.

And they don’t like Gloria Steinem and other old-school feminists trying to impose gender discipline and a call to order on the sisters.

As a woman I know put it: “Hillary doesn’t make it look like fun to be a woman. And her ‘I-have-been-victimized’ campaign is depressing.”

I always thought this was a provocative perspective from a progressive woman--that feminism doesn't have to be all work and no play. It shouldn't be about trying to be just like a man or burying men as oppressors. My first thought when Palin got the VP nod: that paradigm just took a step backwards. Her acceptance by much of America confirms it.